The Indian stock markets may have gained significantly in recent months but the country's fiscal position and uncertainty about global recovery still suggests a cautious approach towards equities, says Moody's.
India is poised to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world and an engine of global growth despite global headwinds, says leading industrialist and Aditya Birla Group Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla. The economic activity in India has witnessed a sharp recovery to pre-pandemic levels on the back of a rapid and widespread rollout of the vaccination programme, Birla said in the latest annual report of UltraTech Cement Ltd. "A strong digital ecosystem, fiscal and monetary policy and various government schemes helped small and medium enterprises and the worst affected sections of the population to survive while reviving demand and bringing the economy back on track," said Birla while addressing UltraTech's shareholders.
Among Sensex stocks, Tata Motors rose the most by 2.79 per cent. NTPC, Reliance Industries, Infosys, TCS, HDFC twins, Tata Motors, ITC, Power Grid and Bajaj Finserv were among the major gainers. Tata Steel fell the most by 1.22 per cent. L&T, Sun Pharmaceuticals, IndusInd Bank and Ultratech Cement were among the losers.
The news that exports to the US will not restart before next year as well as the September quarter performance are sentiment dampeners.
In its first reaction to the stabbing of Salman Rushdie, India on Thursday condemned the "horrific attack" on the celebrated novelist and wished him a speedy recovery.
Demand indicators have turned hot and despite the bad monsoon, India's GDP growth is likely to top 7 per cent, says Jahangir Aziz.
Global gold demand hit an 11-year low in 2020 at 3,759.6 tonnes, mainly due to a weak October-December quarter and the COVID-19 related disruptions across the world driving a muted consumer sentiment throughout the year, the World Gold Council (WGC) said in a report. The overall consumer demand during 2019 was at 4,386.4 tonnes, while in 2009 the overall demand was at 3,385.8 tonnes, according the WGC's 2020 Gold Demand Trends report. Global gold demand dropped by 28 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to 783.4 tonnes in the fourth quarter compared to 1,082.9 tonnes during the October-December period of 2019, the report stated.
"The slump in activity in emerging Asia is over. We believe the region returned to positive growth of the aggregate level in the first quarter of 2009 -- driven by China and India -- and the recovery is broadening to the more open industrial economies in 2009," Barclays Capital, an investment banking arm of Barclays, said.
The Nifty ended at 5,317 - with a loss of 37 points. BSE market breadth was marginally negative. Out of 2,982 stocks traded, 1,543 declined while 1,323 advanced.
"The need of the hour is to go back to the man-centred economics, the village-centred approach that forms the core of the Gandhian philosophy. This means following the Gandhian ethic based on simplicity, self-sufficiency and self-reliance to be achieved through gram rajya, sarvodaya and satyagraha, which has ahimsa as its core," Professor Veena Sikri, former Indian high commissioner to Malaysia and Bangladesh, said in a lecture organised by the Mahatma Gandhi Centre.
It also said the recovery rate of coronavirus cases in India stood at 38.39 per cent. Referring to data from World Health Organisation situation report, the ministry said 45,25,497 COVID-19 cases have been reported till Monday which is about 60 cases per lakh population.
Lower crude oil costs and higher marketing margins are expected to raise the fortunes of oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), while city gas distribution (CGD) companies could also benefit from lower spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, in a break from the past, growth trends are expected to diverge for various segments within the broad energy sector. Analysts expect the earnings from gas production to go down for upstream national oil and gas companies such as Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) due to the introduction of the new domestic gas pricing regime on April 1. After showing steep losses over the first half of 2022-23 (FY23), the marketing margins of OMCs have steadily recovered in four months.
Inflation in India continues to be within tolerable limits, despite the drought and higher fuel prices, but a major risk to current benign outlook may come from future movements in international oil prices.
Govt measures, rupee movements to determine domestic levels
Hindalco's first quarter (Q1FY23) results indicate healthy domestic volumes for aluminium and copper, and lower cost of production. Subsidiary Novelis saw weak volume trends but it managed to push operating profit margins on a better mix and pricing hikes. The weak global outlook on aluminium is a cause for ongoing concern.
Growth in Chinese factories slowed to a crawl as export demand dwindled, while Germany saw business activity decline for the first time in five months.
Large Indian IT services companies are expected to report "muted" sequential show in a traditionally strong second quarter, as macroeconomic challenges continue to weigh on global discretionary spending, say market watchers. The big earnings week for tech heavyweights is up ahead, with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) scheduled to announce its results on October 11, and both Infosys and HCL Technologies on October 12. Wipro is slated to declare its Q2FY24 results next week, on October 18.
India registered a 13 per cent decrease in new COVID-19 cases in the past week but the number of fresh infections was still the highest around the world, the World Health Organisation has said.
Auto stocks are weighing on the indices.
The gradual world economic recovery underway is held hostage to a number of imminent risks with global economy likely to grow at a little over two per cent and world trade by six per cent, the United Nations said in a report Thursday.
Crisil said the next fiscal could be a year of new leadership and old challenges.
Year 2017 will be a benign year for FII flows into India feels Akash Singhania, deputy chief investment officer, DHFL Pramerica Asset Managers.
The festive season will mean business for the steel industry as it is the time when automotive and consumer appliance companies bump up demand to prepare for higher sales, experts have said. Ranjan Dhar, chief marketing officer at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India), said that bookings by auto and consumer appliance industries are 20 per cent higher ahead of the festive season compared to last year. "While this could be for a couple of months, it could normalise later at approximately 10 per cent," he said.
Boosted by the strength of India and China, developing nations would grow 1.2 per cent this year, but without the two, these economies would shrink 1.6 per cent, says the World Bank. Warning that the world is entering an era of "slower growth", the multilateral
After falling for three straight days, gold prices recovered by Rs 50 to Rs 26,700 per ten grams at the bullion market on Friday.
The second wave of COVID-19 may have a more lasting damage on the Indian economy and exports will once again be the foundation for recovery, Moody's Analytics said on Monday. In its report titled 'APAC Economic Outlook: The Delta Roadblock', Moody's Analytics said social distancing is weighing on the current quarter, but economic recovery will resume by the year-end. The Delta variant of COVID-19 is among factors now adversely affecting economies of the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, but the economic hit from the current round of movement restrictions in the region will not be as severe as the recessions in the second quarter of last year.
ONGC was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying around 6 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, L&T, UltraTech Cement, Titan, SBI and NTPC. NSE Nifty settled 32.10 points up at 14,707.80.
Reminiscent of the past two years, the market has made positive strides ahead of the Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24). The benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 1.8 per cent in the last month. Typically, markets tend to gain ahead of the Budget as investors build in optimism.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient rains in August. India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period. India's economy in Q1 grew at the fastest pace in a year, on the shoulders of a boost in capital expenditure both at central and state levels, along with stronger consumption demand, especially in rural areas, and improved performance in the services sector, he said.
Days after an attack on a hospital in Gaza triggered global outrage, India on Thursday called for strict observance of international humanitarian law.
India has said the multiple terror attacks in Paris and Beirut highlight the urgent need to finalise a global convention on terrorism.
Private equity and venture capital funds' investment in the country continued to fall in May, with the overall values declining by nearly 44 per cent to $3.5 billion, a report said on Monday. The dedicated funds had invested $6.2 billion in May 2022 and $7.4 billion in the preceding month of April 2023, representing a dip of 44 per cent and 52 per cent, respectively, as per the report by industry lobby IVCA and consultancy firm EY. "Despite a recovery of sorts being seen in tech sector indices and some of the large global tech names, sentiment in India for tech sector investments has been lacklustre, and fundraising by Indian startups has been sluggish," the firm's partner Vivek Soni said.
Korean electronics major Samsung expects its new foldable devices Galaxy Fold 5 and Galaxy Flip 5 will enable it to capture half of the super premium smartphone segment in India, currently dominated by iPhone maker Apple.
The broader NSE Nifty too reclaimed the key 11,500-mark. It touched a high of 11,562.25, before finally settling at 11,536.90, showing a gain of 59.95 points, or 0.52 per cent.
The 30-share barometer dropped by 402.22, or 2.37 per cent to 16,464.75 at 1200 hrs with all sectoral indices trading in the negative zone.
Macroeconomic data announcement, Omicron situation and global trends will be the major driving factors for the equity market in the first week of the new year 2022, according to analysts. In what turned out to be a historic year, the Indian stock indices went past multiple milestones and the 30-share Sensex made an annual gain of 10,502.49 points or 21.99 per cent in 2021. Religare Broking Vice-President (Research) Ajit Mishra said, "This week marks the beginning of a new month and participants will be closely eyeing some crucial high-frequency data like monthly auto sales, India manufacturing PMI and India services PMI. "Besides, updates on the COVID-19 situation and performance of global markets will also be critical."
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
To be able to tide over the current crisis, automobile manufacturers have waged a war against all cost heads.
Year by year, our cities remain defeated in the face of weather conditions, costing us time, money, resources and often lives, observe Amit Kapoor and Bibek Debroy.
Armed with necessary macro and micro growth drivers, India is on its way to becoming the fastest growing major economy in the world, a finance ministry report said. Rapid vaccination and teeming festivities will push India's ongoing recovery resulting in narrowing of demand-supply mismatches and greater employment opportunities, as per the monthly Economic Review prepared by the ministry.
